Dead Cat Bounce? Oil Prices After King Abdullah's Death

  • Subscribe to our RSS feed.
  • Twitter
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Facebook
  • Digg

Tuesday, 29 January 2013

Obvious? IMF & Another Egyptian Regime Change

Posted on 07:20 by Vicky daru
The facts of the matter are as follows:

(a) The IMF wanted Egypt to achieve "broad-based domestic and international support" for reform prior to lending $4.8 billion or so to the country in a statement dated 20 November 2012;

(b) Since then, the Islamic fundamentalist regime of Muhammad Morsi has instead made things worse in terms of securing domestic cooperation by ramrodding a largely Muslim Brotherhood-designed constitution near year-end 2012;

(c) Fearful that implementing austerity measures alike the removal energy subsidies would further inflame the passions of an already restless and growing opposition, Morsi delayed seeking the disbursement of a tranche of the $4.8 billion stand-by agreement;

(e) This delay will likely require the renegotiation of terms of the earlier staff-level agreement:
Egypt must now renegotiate some terms of the accord, and economists say the IMF board's approval is not a certainty - especially if there is any sign of government wavering over implementing what are likely to be unpopular conditions. Confronted by lethal street violence after Mursi awarded himself sweeping powers in November, the president postponed planned tax increases seen as part of a package of austerity measures needed to secure the IMF loan.
While any specific terms are yet to be made public, any IMF demands to cut spending or remove price subsidies will be hard to sell to an already fractious population ahead of parliamentary elections, more than two years after Hosni Mubarak was ousted in 2011 after 30 years in power.
(f) In the meantime, Egypt's economic situation worsens as the "peace and order situation" deteriorates;

(g) Having run out of Middle Eastern benefactors to tide it over with loans until the IMF finally lends Egypt money and its effective seal of approval, economic pressure to oust Morsi becomes extreme;

(h) At the moment, the IMF is twiddling its thumbs and asking the government to somehow convince the electorate about Egypt's need for its loans;

I think the endgame here is obvious if the IMF doesn't come in soon: Egypt runs out of money for day-to-day government operations and to pay for imports shortly thereafter. Although the IMF will never, ever say so outright, given that no less than regime survival is at stake with the stand-by agreement, its dilly-dallying ultimately means only one thing: The IMFs overlords alike the United States may likely be playing at another regime change given Morsi's utter inability to gain consensus among disparate groups. 

Is it a game of throw the bums out, silence of the IMF style? Say what you will of Mubarak, but he toed the line for a long, long time. If the United States calculates that Mursi is unwilling or unable to do so, well, you might as well get rid of him at the current time--vide the current impasse which seems to be by design. He is not a particularly "useful idiot" as the saying goes. Already certain sources speak of delaying the loan by several months; given the dire situation Egypt finds itself in, who would bet against another regime change by then as the IMF's benefactors take their chances with another faction?
However, government sources close to the negotiations process said IMF has indicated a desire to postpone making any decisions on the loan until after parliamentary elections, which are slated to take place at some point within three to four months.
So much death, destruction and disorder for what particular end? As I said before, don't the white people wish they had Mubarak back right about now? Otherwise, they'll have the next joker (please).
Email ThisBlogThis!Share to XShare to Facebook
Posted in IMF, Middle East | No comments
Newer Post Older Post Home

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

Popular Posts

  • F1 in Reverse: Drop India/Korea, Add Austria/Russia
    Sochi Grand Prix come October: welcome to irredentist F1. There has been a drive in Formula One to broaden its audience to the developing wo...
  • US Bastardizes APEC, PRC Bastardizes Boao Forum
    There's interesting commentary over at The Diplomat concerning the ongoing Boao Forum , formerly China's World Economic Forum wann...
  • Star Wars: USA vs Russia Aboard the ISS
    Geopolitics (astropolitics?) 400 km above Earth. Space, the final frontier. These are the very last few voyages of American astronauts to th...
  • Detours to Linking HK, Shanghai Stock Exchanges
    The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has yet to be, ah, Shanghaied The recent turmoil over student protesters jamming the normal course of traffic (...
  • A Bad Idea: Flying Passenger Jets Over Ukraine
    I am greatly saddened by the loss of Malaysia Airlines MH17 over the airspace of Ukraine. I have been following the disaster since it was re...
  • Crackpot Argentine Conspiracy Theory of the Day
    Argentina needs divine intervention right about now. I am a true connoisseur of the Latin loonie left; the crazier the better. Devaluation, ...
  • Dive Contest: Russian Ruble v Ukrainian Hryvnia
    Only the bravest would take a position on the RUB/UAH exchange rate. In the Summer Olympics, they have a popular and quite watchable event c...
  • East / Southeast Asia's Demographic Bifurcation
    There's are always interesting demographic discussions about the "West and the Rest," but there are also interesting demograph...
  • Counting Ways the Swiss Franc Shook the World
    Some folks didn't know when to fold 'em , hurting FXCM. Less than a month into 2015, we already have a candidate for its biggest eco...
  • Egypt's World Beggary Tour 2013 Goes On
    The rise and millennia-long fall of the Egyptian Empire continues apace. From the giddy heights of empire catalogued in the Bible to its pre...

Categories

  • Aerospace
  • Africa
  • Agriculture
  • Americana
  • Anti-Globalization
  • APEC
  • Caribbean
  • Cars
  • Casino Capitalism
  • Cheneynomics
  • China
  • Commodities
  • Corruption
  • Credit Crisis
  • CSR
  • Culture
  • Currencies
  • Demography
  • Development
  • Economic Diplomacy
  • Economic History
  • Education
  • Egypt
  • Energy
  • Entertainment
  • Environment
  • Europe
  • FDI
  • Gambling
  • Gender Equality
  • Governance
  • Health
  • Hegemony
  • IMF
  • India
  • Innovation
  • Intellectual Property
  • Internet Governance
  • Japan
  • Labor
  • Latin America
  • Litigation
  • Marketing
  • Media
  • Microfinance
  • Middle East
  • Migration
  • Mining
  • MNCs
  • Multiculturalism
  • Neoliberalism
  • Nonsense
  • Outsourcing
  • Paris Club
  • Religion
  • Russia
  • Sanctions
  • Security
  • Service Announcement
  • Socialism
  • Soft Power
  • South Asia
  • South Korea
  • Southeast Asia
  • Sports
  • Supply Chain
  • Technology
  • Trade
  • Travel
  • Underground Economy
  • United Nations
  • World Bank

Blog Archive

  • ►  2015 (16)
    • ►  January (16)
  • ►  2014 (295)
    • ►  December (21)
    • ►  November (27)
    • ►  October (27)
    • ►  September (24)
    • ►  August (24)
    • ►  July (28)
    • ►  June (27)
    • ►  May (27)
    • ►  April (29)
    • ►  March (23)
    • ►  February (18)
    • ►  January (20)
  • ▼  2013 (183)
    • ►  December (15)
    • ►  November (17)
    • ►  October (19)
    • ►  September (21)
    • ►  August (14)
    • ►  July (17)
    • ►  June (16)
    • ►  May (8)
    • ►  April (9)
    • ►  March (13)
    • ►  February (14)
    • ▼  January (20)
      • US GDP Shrinks, But Stocks Near All-Time Highs?
      • Obvious? IMF & Another Egyptian Regime Change
      • Fleeing Egypt? Buy Caribbean Dual Citizenship
      • Antigua & Online Gaming: Fighting the US Bullies
      • Globalization's Victims: Filipino Workers in Algeria
      • The Japan That Can't Export? Its 2012 Trade Deficit
      • "Hurry Up and Die": Japan & the Cost of Eldercare
      • Markets, Not China, Will Determine RMB Adoption
      • Britannia Forever: UK to Jilt EU for Commonwealth?
      • Victors and Vanquished: Korean Cars in Europe
      • Trash for Treasure: CenBanks Swapping $ for RMB
      • How Broke is Greece? It Drops Volleyball Tourneys
      • End of an Outsourcing Era: 787 Nightmareliner
      • Odd Arne Westad on Frosty China-Japan Relations
      • Nuke to Thrill: Rekindling Japan's Fission Passion
      • TorrentWorld: How LED TV Makers Co-Opt Piracy
      • Falklands Referendum is Farce (But I Support UK)
      • PC Gone Mad: Women Drivers' Car Insurance in EU
      • Racism and Turkey's EU Bid, Episode VLXVII
      • Gangnam Fail: A White Guy on K-Wave's Success
  • ►  2012 (4)
    • ►  December (4)
Powered by Blogger.

About Me

Vicky daru
View my complete profile